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Is subscription models going to die ?

Subscription isn't dying.

1. Box sales provide an immediate infusion of cash

Although the publisher receives only part of the price we pay, we're still talking about a lot of money. As an artificial example, a million boxes at $25 wholesale produces a very welcome quick start toward recovering the cost of development. It seems reasonable that the more a company has spent on a game, the more attractive this inflow is likely to be. As a result, it's also probable that very large-budget projects will tend toward the subscription model.

2. There's a very substantial market

Millions of people are willing and/or happy to sign up to pay their $15 or less per month. Just in North America and Europe, we're looking at a market worth a billion dollars or more this year. This is large enough to attract companies with modest budgets and expectations. After all, a one or two percent share can still be ample to turn a nice profit depending on your development and operating costs. There are also far fewer competitors.

3. It's growing

The current trend where F2P is growing more rapidly and thus gaining market share doesn't mean subscription is shrinking, at least not in dollars. So, not only is there a substantial pie available, it's also getting larger.

In addition, there are some very knowledgeable industry members and observers who believe F2P is a phenomenon that will run its course soon enough, and effectively collapse under its own weight. While I don't subscribe to this type of scenario, it would even take us back to monthly fees being predominant in the market.